Neighbourhood

Neighbourhood

Neighbourhood Safety is a composite derived from 7 questions related to different facets of safety in the neighbourhood.

They are:

Each respondent is asked if they are concerned with these issues in their neighbourhood, and response with 1 of:

  1. Hardly ever

  2. Some of the time

  3. Often

We then assign people into three categories:

  1. Very Safe Neighbourhood: Response to all crime questions is “not at all common”. Justification is that if you perceive no threat at all this is the best possible state.

  2. Safe Neighbourhood: Responds to 1+ question as “not very common” but no responses to ‘fairly or very common’. Justification is that on the whole these people probably feel safe but not all is perfect, so probably not quite as desirable as group 1.

  3. Unsafe Neighbourhood: Responds to 1+ question as fairly or very common’. Justification is that if perception of crime is very or fairly common, no matter what category, you are likely to feel that your neighbourhood safety is compromised.

IMPORTANT NOTE: The variables listed above that make up neighbourhood_safety are only asked in the survey every 3rd wave, starting in wave 3 (6, 9, 12). This causes a lot of problems and was the most challenging variable to include in the model. First, trying to fit a

Methods

plot of chunk neighbourhood_barchart

Fig. 24 plot of chunk neighbourhood_barchart

Transition Model

We fit a Random Forest Ordinal model from the ranger package in R to estimate transitions for this variable.

Formula:

\[\begin{split}neighbourhood\_safety \sim age + sex + ethnicity + region + education\_state + hh\_income + \\behind\_on\_bills + financial\_situation\end{split}\]

Predictor

Description

Lite rature/Justification

Sex

Age

Ethnicity

Region

Administrative region of the UK

Education

Highest attained qualification

Household Income

Behind on Bills

Financial Situation

 
plot_rfo_importance(model)
plot of chunk nh_safety_model_summary

Fig. 25 plot of chunk nh_safety_model_summary

Validation

handover_ordinal(raw.dat, base.dat, v)
plot of chunk nh_safety_validation

Fig. 26 plot of chunk nh_safety_validation

Results

plot of chunk neighbourhood_output

Fig. 27 plot of chunk neighbourhood_output

cumulative_link_plot(obs, preds)

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'
plot of chunk neighbourhood_performance

Fig. 28 plot of chunk neighbourhood_performance

References